It’s that time again! Countries are gearing up to submit their new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025, and they can’t just be any updates – they need real ambition and have clear commitments to justice. Climate impacts are already here, and world leaders need to prove they’re serious about moving away from fossil fuels and shifting to renewable energy fast and boldly enough.
The best NDCs should take a hard look at the climate footprint of the fossil fuels they export and set out clear steps to reduce it. They need a solid plan for cutting fossil fuel production, with no new extraction projects. And especially for Global North countries, they need to set fair phase out dates – no later than 2031.
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At 350.org, we’ve huddled over the NDCs from some of the biggest fossil fuels players: Australia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, Japan, Norway, UAE, Uganda, UK and the US. We want to go beyond just checking boxes: does each NDC set ambitious energy goals? Do they prioritize equity and fairness? Is the process transparent, with space for local communities? These are the questions behind our ‘traffic light scorecard’, where each country earns a rating that reflects how close they are to meeting climate goals. Our traffic light system isn’t just about pass-fail; it shows how close (or far) each country is to meeting those climate justice goals, especially in the energy sector.
Green means the country is on track with clear, ambitious goals, prioritizing fairness.
Yellow shows some progress but with room for improvement.
And red signals they’re ‘missing the mark’, whether it’s on fossil fuel phase out, renewable energy expansion, or community involvement.
So, how are the big players doing?
The US, Canada, Norway, Australia, and the UK are among the biggest fossil fuel producers, but most still don’t have solid plans to stop digging up and burning fossil fuels. The UK has some groundwork to phase out fuels by 2031, which is a good start. As for the others, we’re not expecting them to submit updated NDCs by COP29.
The UAE, Brazil, and Azerbaijan: often called the ‘Troika’ of oil production, have unique responsibilities in the energy transition. The UAE stands out here – with the economic capacity to manage a fast phase out of oil and gas. So, it could (and should!) move quicker than most countries. In Brazil, civil society groups say the country needs to cut oil and gas use by 38% and 42% by 2035 to hit the 1.5ºC target. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan, with less capacity to transition, may need more time, but it still needs to come to the table with a plan in place.
Then there’s Indonesia, where civil society has raised red flags about the lack of transparency in its NDC. They’re asking for clearer timelines on phasing out fossil fuels, and to keep everything above board.
More than words on paper
Countries have until February 2025 to submit their new NDCs, and they need to be more than words on paper. They must protect communities, support a just energy transition, and drive real progress towards the 1.5ºC goal. The clock’s ticking, and we’re watching closely. Let’s see a lot more green and less red as countries step up to the plate.
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